Do you think the US has a hand in our present political crisis?

Poll: Is Jun Lozada worth destabilizing our country for?

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

The coming storm

The beating continues....and the Philippines, not GMA, is in the ropes this early in the bout.

ZTE, Spratlys, Artificial Rice Crisis, and now the so-called Swine scam.

What next?

In the well-kept timetable of the brains behind the present crisis, timing is everything. The Domino Effect: everything is leading up to a penultimate round of confrontation with obnoxious effects on us, common folks. Expect the impeachment process at round 11 and 2010 elections at round 12. Today we’re just in Round 4. Expect security issues (i.e. failure to contain and defeat the Abu Sayyaf, MILF and CPP-NPA) at around Round 5 or 6.

And what happens to GMA? What now for the Philippines? This boxing match between the Big Bully and the resident in Malacanang could only result in one of two things.

First, she distances herself from China. She redraws her INDEPENDENT Foreign Policy to toe the American line of Limiting Chinese Influence in Asia. And whoever she endorses in 2010 will lose. She will be unpopular, isolated and condemned in history. All because she embarrassed her US allies by withdrawing from the Coalition of the Willing in 2004 in Iraq to save Angelo De la Cruz. The price we pay for trying to be independent!

Second, she falls. How? If she remains stubborn with her China-friendly policy, they’ll push for an impeachment trial very similar to Erap: All the legal remedies and avenues will be afforded her and she will be have the upper hand, meaning all those charges thrown at her will remain unproven and lacking in evidence. But in a popular, MTV-generation coverage of a Senate Investigation, the people’s anger will boil over and we will, it is hoped, take to the streets, leading to her resignation.

The first scenario is more feasible and sensible from US foreign policy viewpoint. Once GMA rescinds all those contracts and curtsies before our US Masters/Allies. The second is more unstable, unpredictable, security-wise for US interests. (Consider the risk of Trillanes and the threat from the Left).

What’s happening now is very similar to the post-Edsa moves by the US (using Enrile and Gringo with the quizzical indifference of Fidel Ramos. God save the Queen was a move to drive Cory to the Right. She was perceived as too soft to the left (freeing Joma Sison, Satur Ocampo, Jalandoni, Dante Buscayno, etc; engaging in the a Peace Talks which the Left effectively used for propaganda) and her government was riddled with closet communists (partly true). In the aftermath she “unsheathed the sword of war” against the Communists, and the Oplan Lambat Bitag drawing from the Low-Intensity Conflict textbooks of the CIA and South America.

The US intent could be good. For the country, for the region, for their interests. But the methods are undemocratic, disrespectful and Uncle Sam deserves a kick in the balls for it. One day we’ll be truly free. They’ll see.

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